Cop26 deal real advances but not enough for this emergency says science chief live updates

Tim Crosland, director with environmental charity Plan B which took the government to court over its plans to build a new runway at Heathrow, is pretty scathing about the outcome of Cop26.

“Despite the determined efforts of many to present COP26 as “important progress”, such claims are no more than propaganda and greenwash. In objective terms, COP26 has ended in absolute failure,” he said.

Crosland added that it was important for the media to “call this out” so “public and political attention can be turned to a) the causes of failure and b) what can be done about them.”

It’s not that our politicians are evil. They don’t want us all to die. But they are blinded by ideology to the real cause of the crisis, which is an economic model which depends on short-term profits and compound economic growth, which can only be maintained through the concentrated power of fossil fuels.

António Guterres, the secretary general of the United Nations, says Glasgow laid the building blocks for progress but is very clear there is much more to do â€" starting with ending the massive taxpayer-funded handouts that governments give to fossil fuel companies every year.

António Guterres (@antonioguterres)

We must end fossil fuel subsidies.
Phase out coal.
Put a price on carbon.
Protect vulnerable communities.
And make good on the $100 billion climate finance commitment to support developing countries.

We didn't achieve that at #COP26, but we have building blocks for progress.

November 14, 2021

Tzeporah Berman, an academic and activist with the Stand Earth charity, says that what was achieved at Glasgow was “historic” â€" but only because the bar has been set so low by a compromised system:

Tzeporah Berman (@Tzeporah)

Historic. And insufficient. That is the dilemma of climate era. We are so stuck in our current systems & so heavily influenced by incumbents who stand to benefit from status quo that even the qualified acknowledgement in text of #COP26 of one fossil fuel, coal feels historic. 🧵

November 14, 2021

This take from world renowned climate scientist and author Michael Mann warns of being overwhelmed with despondency about the outcome of Cop26, arguing that is what those opposed to real, urgent action want. His verdict: “Real progress WAS made, but much more work to be done.”

Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann)

Doomer trolls/bots out in force right now. They want you to think that nothing was achieved at #COP26 & that nothing ever CAN be achieved on climate. They want you on the sidelines not the front lines.

Real progress WAS made, much more work to be done:
https://t.co/Nd0N9WAESH

November 14, 2021

This is a powerful and fascinating piece by my colleague George Monbiot who does not hold back in his verdict on what Cop26 achieved: “The Glasgow Climate Pact, for all its restrained and diplomatic language, looks like a suicide pact.”

But he says there is still hope, which, he argues, lies with so-called positive social and economic “tipping points”that can flip our complex system very quickly.

“Like natural systems, if they are driven past their tipping points, they can flip with astonishing speed. Our last, best hope is to use those dynamics to our advantage, triggering what scientists call “cascading regime shifts”.”

We’ve just posted video of the moment in the final plenary session when Cop president Alok Sharma fought back tears. It followed his apology for the change in language around fossil fuel - and brought a warm round of supportive applause from the delegates. It was a genuinely emotional moment which reflected how much everyone there has put into these negotiations. And also how tired everyone was!

And now I am going to hand over to my colleague Matthew Taylor, here to take you through the next few hours. Cop and out.

So where does Cop26 stand in comparison to other Cops in terms of the now traditional overrun?

Officially the deadline for the negotiations is Friday. But almost every Cop has overrun - a few by days. In fact in recent years the increasing trend has been for a Sunday finish (a fact of which all of us camped there, waiting for the end, were grimly aware).

But Cop president Alok Sharma said firmly from the beginning that he did not want to overrun. When Friday evening came with no deal, the organisers announced that a new text would be published on Saturday morning and that that the final stage would take place on Saturday afternoon. And give or take a few hours for urgent huddling, he got the deal through by early Saturday evening.

So, according to the table posted by @carbonreporter earlier this week, this puts Cop26 somewhere between Bali and Warsaw: about 20th on the table.

CarbonReporter (@CarbonReporter)

So: if I apply the standard 2-week rule to COP3, then Kyoto ended on the Saturday at 1530, which puts it after COP10 and before COP6 in terms of over-running: pic.twitter.com/RYkvmTw6ot

November 11, 2021

My colleague Jessica Murray has spoken to locals about the impact of the conference on the city of Glasgow

“It’s been truly amazing. We’re just really grateful to have been at least slightly a part of it,” said local cafe owner Gillian McIntyre. “Where else do you get exposure to such a vast range of people from around the planet all in one place?”

Read her full piece here:

Sir David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the UK government and current chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, has responded to the final deal reached at the UN climate conference in Glasgow.

“There were real advances made in the agreement, following on from Cop21 in Paris 2015. Adaptation, mitigation and finance were all strengthened. Rules on carbon markets were approved. The importance of the protection, conservation and restoration of nature and ecosystems was recognised â€" although the phrase “critical importance” was removed. And the “phase down” â€" not “phase out” â€" of coal was approved, at the last minute.

“But there was no real understanding in the agreement of the extreme nature of the crisis. How do we, the current generation, ensure a manageable future for humanity? The threat to all of us from the loss of polar summer sea ice over the Arctic Ocean is a clear signal of the disaster from rising sea level, severe extreme weather events and high temperatures; but it was not addressed in any way. This was the meeting when the end of coal, oil and gas should have been set in place, in an orderly, efficient and fair way. The power of the USA oil and gas lobby meant that the USA was unable, once again, to show clear leadership on this critical issue.

“Countries and their leadership, fossil fuel industry lobbies, and private companies must all be held accountable for not only failing to follow up on promises made at the meeting but also for the loss of life and damage to our ecosystems that follow from their actions. National and international lawyers have a critically important role to play in managing this accountability.

“And we, the scientific community, have a critical role to play in analysing the actions year-by-year of each country to manage a safe future for humanity, to assist in the process of managing accountability. This role for the scientific community is effectively recognised in the first paragraph of the agreement.

“The follow-up meeting of the UNFCCC will be held this time next year in Egypt. We now have to look to that meeting to set in place not only the rapid phase out of fossil fuels and deforestation, but also for the developed economies to take on the responsibility to fund the removal of excess greenhouse gases at scale from the atmosphere, aimed at bringing the level down to 350 ppm CO2 equivalent. In order to buy time to achieve these objectives, they will also have to develop and roll out the repair of the Arctic Circle so that it is once again covered with ice in the polar summer.”

US nonprofit news organisation Truthout is reporting that in a couple of days’ time the Biden administration is due to “auction off more than 80 million acres of the Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas drilling companies less than a week after the United Nations COP26 climate conference”.

According to a Reuters report on this auction, back in September, this is an annual auction which also took place last November. The timing, however, is poor. Truthout reports: “More than 250 environmental, social justice and Indigenous groups sent a letter to President Joe Biden on Wednesday with an ‘urgent plea’ to cancel the lease sale.”

This is Bibi van der Zee, by the way, taking over from Alan Evans for the next few hours. Send any interesting Cop related thoughts to me via @bibivanderzee.

Leo Hickman, the editor of the influential climate change website Carbon Brief, has posted this interesting breakdown of the controversial changes in language around coal.

You can trace the way in which the negotiators were forced over three days to insert more and more conditional words so that in the end they could make sure that the document did, in fact, mention coal and fossil fuels, for the very first time.

Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)

Here is how the wording of that key "phase down coal" paragraph changed over three days - and five fiercely negotiated iterations - at #COP26 pic.twitter.com/vDq2NHVYOv

November 14, 2021

Chis Stark, head of the UK government’s statutory advisers, the Committee on Climate Change, has told the Herald on Sunday that both the UK and Scottish governments need to set a timetable for ending oil and gas exploration.

Stark suggests it would be “useful and helpful” for the energy sector and could potentially reduce transition costs.

Both UK and Scottish governments have been accused of hypocrisy for not opposing Cambo, a proposed oil drilling project off Shetland, although Scottish ministers point out they do not have power over licensing.

Nicola Sturgeon gave her strongest indication last month of wanting to achieve “the fastest possible just transition” for the sector, but both governments were challenged at Cop26 for not yet signing up to the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance. Sturgeon has said her government is still “considering” joining the coalition of countries committing to phasing out those fossil fuels.

Stark told the Herald on Sunday: “The information we have worked hard at is on the demand side. On that front, it’s clearly useful and helpful to name a date and then build the public support for that date behind it and crucially get commercial response that’s behind it.

“You can see that in a lot of what the UK government has done in the last few weeks â€" which is to build that single idea that you phase out the sale of combustible engines by 2030 and then you have a mandate to increase it. You can do the same on gas boilers by 2033. The big one is the electricity supply by 2035 being fully decarbonised. Naming a date so that everyone is clear on what needs to happen, is a really useful way of clearing the path and bringing the costs down.”

Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the university of Reading, has taken a relatively optimistic view of things and cites the remarkable progress made in recent years on some fronts:

“Less than 10 years ago the solid science of human-caused climate change was still disputed by agenda-driven individuals and organisations who should be made accountable for their damaging delaying tactics. Based on the clear scientific evidence, Cop26 has made progress towards a net zero CO2 emissions world but continued expansion of ambition is crucial in limiting the growing severity of climate extremes and to avoid rendering some regions uninhabitable for future generations.

“Given the glacial pace of progress on climate action, in part due to the blatant short term self-interest of powerful individuals and organisations, it’s almost tempting - like Gulliver at the end of his travels - to feel a sense of loathing for the human species. But there is also a sense of guarded optimism that a spark of the universe came alive, wondered at the beauty of our world, eventually noticed we were soiling it terribly before [we] imperfectly yet doggedly and collectively began digging ourselves out of our mess.”

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